The Effect of the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) and Population on Economic Growth in North Sumatra
DOI: https://doi.org/10.26618/1s7b6q30
Labor Force Participation Rate, Population, Economic Growth
Abstract
This study investigates the effect of the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) and population size on economic growth in North Sumatra Province during the 2018–2023 period. Economic growth remains a crucial indicator of regional development performance, particularly in provinces experiencing demographic dynamics and labor market fluctuations. Using a quantitative approach, this study employs multiple linear regression analysis based on secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the North Sumatra Manpower Office. Prior to estimation, classical assumption tests including normality, multicollinearity, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity were conducted to ensure model robustness. The empirical results reveal that LFPR has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, indicating that higher labor market participation enhances regional production capacity and output. Population size also shows a positive and significant influence, suggesting that population growth can stimulate economic activity through expanded labor supply and consumption demand when properly managed. Simultaneously, LFPR and population significantly affect economic growth, as confirmed by the F-test results. The coefficient of determination (R²) of 91.84% indicates that the two independent variables explain a substantial proportion of variations in economic growth in North Sumatra. These findings highlight the strategic role of labor force engagement and demographic management in fostering sustainable regional economic growth. Policy implications emphasize the importance of job creation, workforce skill development, and human capital investment to maximize the benefits of demographic potential and support inclusive economic development in North Sumatra Province.
References
Abidin, Z., Adewiyeh, R., & Tan, I. T. (2024). Analisis Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja Sumatera Utara Tahun 2022. Buletin Ekonomika Pembangunan, 5(1), 80–90.
Darma, B., & Wulansari, K. Y. (2021). Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kabupaten Batang Hari Tahun 2010-2020. J-MAS (Jurnal Manajemen Dan Sains), 6(2), 444–447. https://doi.org/10.33087/jmas.v6i2.309
Ghozali, I. (2018). Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate dengan Program IBM SPSS 25. Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Handani, T., & Suharianto, J. (2025). Pengaruh TPT , PDRB , dan TPAK Terhadap Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode 2002-2023. Moneter: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 3(2), 22–39. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.61132/moneter.v3i2.1284
Maulana, R., Rizki, Z. C., Nazamuddin, B. ., & ZT Afandi, F. (2023). Pengaruh Tingkat Partisipasi Angakatan Kerja, Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka dan Tingkat Pendiddikan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Aceh. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Ekonomi Pembangunan (JIM EKP), 8(2), 78–87.
Nazir, M. (2014). Metode Penelitian. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.
Pradnyaswari, N. M. W., Darsana, I. B., & Setiawina, N. D. (2020). Pengaruh Upah dan Modal Manusia Terhadap Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja dan Distribusi Pendapatan Kabupaten/Kota Di Provinsi Bali. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana, 10(4), 1–28.
Purba, D. C., Prihanto, P. H., & Aminah, S. (2020). Pengaruh tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja, indeks harga konsumen, produk domestik regional bruto terhadap upah rata-rata Pulau Sumatera. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Sumberdaya Dan Lingkungan, 9(3), 158–169. https://doi.org/10.22437/jels.v9i3.11958
Purba, D., Tarigan, I., Simamora, N., & Pardede, N. (2024). Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Of Economics, Business and Engineering (JEBE), 5(2), 275–283.
Safrina, Y., & Ratna. (2023). Pengaruh Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja, Kualitas Penduduk, dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 6(3), 21–30.
Sianturi, A. F., Tampubolon, A., Hidayat, N., Nasution, M. D., & Sianturi, R. (2024). Pengaruh Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (TPAK) dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Kemiskinan di Kota Medan (2014-2023). JALAKOTEK: Journal of Accounting Law Communication and Technology, 1(2), 739–750. https://doi.org/10.57235/jalakotek.v1i2.2606
Simarmata, Y. W., & Iskandar, D. D. (2022). Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Investasi, Jumlah Penduduk, Kemiskinan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia: Analisa Two Stage Least Square untuk Kasus Indonesia. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 5(1), 78–94. https://doi.org/10.14710/jdep.5.1.78-94
Sugiyono. (2019). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif dan R&D. Bandung: Alfabeta.
Syafira, S., Selvia, D., Ratna, & Saharuddin. (2023). Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk, Upah Minimum, Dan Pdrb Terhadap Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja Di Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 2(1), 30–46. https://doi.org/10.29103/jeru.v6i3.15180
Syamsuddin, N., Nelly, Rahma, Saputra, H. D., Mulyono, S., Muhammad, Faudi, Z., & Anwar. (2021). Pengaruh Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja dan Pendidikan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Aceh. Jurnal Sosiohumaniora Kodepena: Information Center for Indonesian Social Sciences, 2(1), 223–240.
Yunianto, D. (2021). Analisis pertumbuhan dan kepadatan penduduk terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Forum Ekonomi, 23(4), 688–699. https://doi.org/10.30872/jfor.v23i4.10233
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Jurnal Ekonomi Balance
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
