Navigating the 12% VAT Increase in Indonesia: Challenges and Opportunities for Equity Investors in the Context of Islamic Finance
DOI: https://doi.org/10.26618/bdb97z47
Abstract
This study examines the economic and investment implications of Indonesia’s Value Added Tax (VAT) increase from 11% to 12%, effective January 1, 2025, within the framework of Islamic finance. The policy, part of a broader fiscal reform, aims to enhance state revenue, promote sustainable development, and strengthen fiscal stability, while applying the higher rate only to luxury goods and services. Using an exploratory qualitative approach, this research analyzes both challenges and opportunities arising for equity investors in the Indonesian capital market. Findings reveal that the VAT increase may reduce consumer purchasing power, particularly affecting consumption-driven sectors such as consumer goods and retail, thereby increasing market volatility and reducing short-term profitability. However, sectors less affected by the policy such as healthcare, technology, and halal finance present diversification opportunities aligned with Shariah principles. From an Islamic finance perspective, taxation is permissible when implemented with fairness (‘adl) and aimed at public welfare (maslahah), ensuring that vulnerable groups remain protected. The study highlights that investors integrating Shariah ethics, risk management, and sustainability considerations can navigate fiscal adjustments more effectively. Overall, the VAT increase, while posing short-term market challenges, may lead to long-term fiscal resilience and responsible investment opportunities under a just and transparent Islamic economic framework.
References
Afditya, I. (2024). Kenaikan PPN 12%: Peluang cuan atau beban baru di pasar modal?
Al-Qaradawi, Y. (2017). Fiqh Az-Zakah. Beirut: Muassasah al-Risalah.
Anwar, M., & Khalil, R. (2020). Islamic finance and investment strategies during fiscal shocks: Empirical evidence from emerging markets. Journal of Islamic Economics Studies, 8(2), 88–104.
Charlie Kuncara Jati, & Indriastuti, D. R. (2024). Analisis dampak volatilitas pasar, faktor fundamental, dan sentimen investor terhadap keputusan investasi saham pada mahasiswa program studi manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Slamet Riyadi Surakarta tahun 2024. Lokawati: Jurnal Penelitian Manajemen dan Inovasi Riset, 2(5), 74–82.
Damara Tonce, D. (2024). Ultrajaya (ULTJ) bersiaga biaya produksi bisa terdampak PPN 12%.
Dovestory. (2024). Strategi investor menghadapi dampak kenaikan PPN 12 persen di pasar saham.
Febri Firmansyah, C. (2025). Dampak kenaikan pajak pertambahan nilai 12% terhadap tingkat konsumsi masyarakat Indonesia.
Fauzi, A., & Rahmah, N. (2023). Pajak dan keadilan sosial dalam perspektif Islam: Telaah kritis terhadap kenaikan PPN. Jurnal Ekonomi Islam Nusantara, 6(1), 22–34.
Fitriya. (2025). Pajak pertambahan nilai dan regulasi tarif PPN terbaru 2025.
Fitrah Ghaly Hasan, A. (2025). PPN naik 12%: Ancaman bagi perdagangan internasional Indonesia?
Firdaus, M., Zakariya, M., & Hanifah, L. (2023). ESG and Maqashid Syariah alignment in sharia equity investments. International Journal of Islamic Finance and Economics, 5(3), 91–107.
Fristia Maulana, A., Maryanto, H., Ardiari Kusumah, D., & Saputra, K. (2024). Analisis pengaruh kebijakan pajak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Kajian Multidisipliner, 8(6).
Kartika Dewi, H. (2024). Kebijakan PPN 12% berlaku tahun depan, berikut efeknya ke saham konsumer.
Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Republik Indonesia. (2025). Presiden Prabowo Subianto tegaskan pemberlakuan PPN 12% hanya dikenakan terhadap barang dan jasa mewah.
Malik, A. (2024). PPN naik jadi 12% mulai awal Januari 2025, ini dampaknya ke JPFA, ACES, MYOR hingga ICBP.
Nabila, F. (2025). Apakah PPN jadi naik 12%? Ini penjelasan detail Prabowo dan Sri Mulyani.
Nathaniel Chandra, B. (2025). PPN 12 persen batal, rakyat menang atau negara rugi?
Purwanto, A. (2024). Tertimpa beban PPN 12 persen, sejumlah sektor ekonomi rentan melambat.
Ramadhan, R. A., & Nasito, M. (2023). Analisis pengaruh inovasi produk dan kualitas produk terhadap kinerja operasional perusahaan (studi pada brand Erigo di marketplace Shopee). Jurnal Ilmiah Kajian Multidisipliner, 2(2).
Ramadhan, R. A., & Suharto, Y. (2024). Optimalisasi pajak dalam perspektif Maqashid Syariah: Studi empiris pada anggaran fiskal Indonesia. Jurnal Keuangan Islam dan Publik, 4(2), 115–129.
Rahman, A., & Isa, S. (2022). Fiscal policy within Maqashid Al-Shariah framework: Taxation reconsidered. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 13(1), 46–59.
Ridwan, R. (2025). Kenaikan PPN 12% mulai 1 Januari 2025: Antara kontroversi dan dampaknya pada rakyat.
Saka Saputra, W. (2024). Pajak dan kesinambungan dalam stabilitas ekonomi.
Sri Rahayu, I. R., & Djumena, E. (2024). 5 hal yang perlu diketahui terkait tarif PPN 12 persen.
Tempo. (2024). Dampak kenaikan PPN 12 persen menurut para pengamat ekonomi.
Uswah, S. (2024). Dampak kenaikan PPN jadi 12%, pakar ekonomi UM Surabaya: Pengaruhi stabilitas ekonomi nasional.
Yuliani, R., & Maulidya, H. (2021). Analisis keadilan fiskal dalam kebijakan pajak Indonesia: Tinjauan Maqashid Syariah. Jurnal Hukum dan Ekonomi Islam, 9(2), 63–75. Issue 5, Ver. 5 (May. 2016) PP 18-23.
